Stochastic volatility of financial markets as the fluctuating rate of trading: An empirical study

We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) framework. The probability distribution of the stock price changes (log-returns) for a given number of trades N is found to be approximately Gaussian. The probability distribution of N for a given time interval Dt is nonPoissonian and has an exponential tail for large N and a sharp cutoff for small N. Combining these two distributions produces a non-trivial distribution of log-returns for a given time interval Dt, which has exponential tails and a Gaussian central part, in agreement with empirical observations. r 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.